2025 elections in Honduras: state control, fragmented opposition, and institutional tension

The national elections in Honduras, slated for November 30, 2025, are happening amidst a climate of political strain and scrutiny of institutions. The electoral scenario is characterized by the dominance of the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) over government bodies and an opposition struggling to form a cohesive alternative. Indications of democratic erosion and clashes between pivotal institutions, like the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces, create worries regarding the clarity and validity of the process.

The political landscape in Honduras is marked by the division within the opposition, as the National Party and the Liberal Party engage in discussions to establish a coalition. Nonetheless, disagreements on leadership roles and program outlines have hindered the creation of a strong partnership. The latest primary elections exposed organizational issues and witnessed low voter participation, which heightened skepticism regarding the electoral process and intensified critiques of institutional governance.

Oversight by institutions and conflicts during the voting procedure

The Nodos analysis observes that democracy in Honduras is under strain, with the governing party preserving its influence via established control over institutions. This condition has led to potential scenarios like maintaining the present model, stalling institutions, or even a constitutional crisis. Concerns about the neutrality and effectiveness of the election process have arisen due to tensions between the National Electoral Council and the Armed Forces, who manage electoral logistics. Furthermore, the absence of electoral changes and ongoing political division heighten the probability of disputes following the elections.

Different groups within civil society and the global community have urged the authorities to ensure a fair and participatory election process, upholding democratic values to maintain the nation’s political and social stability. The mix of a governing party with control over institutions, a fragmented opposition, and a disputed electoral system increases the risk of an extraordinary institutional crisis in Honduras.

Possible coalition strategies and the ruling party’s reactions

In light of the present situation, the Liberal and National parties have initiated official discussions to investigate the potential for forming a coalition to oppose the LIBRE Party in the forthcoming elections. These discussions have covered strategies for electoral alliance, the allocation of candidates, and a shared platform focused on safeguarding democracy, the market-based economy, and adherence to the constitutional framework. The opposition parties highlight that the administration of Xiomara Castro and her advisor, Manuel Zelaya, have implemented measures aimed at centralizing authority, such as employing the Public Ministry to act against adversaries, endeavors to manipulate the CNE, and suggestions for constitutional amendments.

If an alliance is established, the two longstanding parties might collectively represent over half of the voters, based on the latest surveys. The union is seen by both social and economic sectors as a plausible option to curb the governing party’s advancements. Meanwhile, the ruling party has minimized the significance of a potential opposition coalition, asserting that it fails to present solutions for the nation. The electoral process in 2025 appears to be shaping up as a choice between continuing the foundational project championed by LIBRE and reverting to a republican, pro-investment approach supported by a united opposition. The results will determine Honduras’s political and institutional path.