The French Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, faces criticism over the growth forecasts and the deficit supported by his government, hearing qualified optimists from various experts.
Growth and deficit
According to the Observatorio Francés de Coyunturas Económicas (OFCE), provided that the increase in the PIB is limited to 0.8% in 2025trans an expansion of the 1.1% in 2024. Furthermore, if you estimate that the deficit could increase el 5% in 2025despite the efforts of the Ministry of Economy and Finance to reduce it from 6% to 5.3% in 2024.
The High Council of Public Finances (HCFP) defined Barnier's forecasts as “fragile”, underlining the optimism of the macroeconomic scenario on which it is based. This group of experts attributes the deficit to a “recessionary effect” that could reduce growth 0.8 points.
Deuda publishes on the rise
The combination of a loss of growth and an increase in the deficit will cause public debt to reach 115% of GDP he final of 2025, compared with el 112.8% scheduled for this year's finals.
Tax adjustments
French tax authorities require an adjustment 60,000 million euros in the next fiscal year, of which one third correspond to tax invoices and the rest to the public gas market. It is estimated that approximately the 60% from this adjustment will come the increase in price, while el 40% if necessary to reduce gas costs.
Impact of monetary policy
OFCE experts indicated that the category of interested parties could contribute 0.4 points to growth in 2025, even if political uncertainty could begin again 0.2 points. This reflects a more restrictive landscape of assumptions and softer monetary policy.
Consumption and reversal prospects
OFCE carried out slower economic growth in 2024, with an advance of 0.2% quarterly which will boost domestic consumption, albeit in a moderate way. Despite the recovery of real wages, it is hoped that the power gained will be limited, with an estimated increase of 0.2%.
Labor market and sample
The job market will also be affected, with a projection of 163,000 employees lost. Corporate cost-cutting reform could lead to the elimination of everything 15,000 jobs in the first year and an increase in the sample fee 7.5% to 8% for the 2025 final.
Barnier's economic forecasts address a destabilizing context, characterized by limited growth and a growing deficit. Political uncertainty and the need for fiscal adjustments complicate the landscape, which suggests that the government will need to take additional measures to address these challenges and stabilize the French economy.
