The National Commission for Markets and Skills (CNMC) will rule this week on the possible merger between BBVA and Banco Sabadell. The BBVA entity has launched an offer to Sabadell members and the CNMC's decision will be crucial for the progress of this operation.
State of the Analysis
The first phase of the merger analysis is nearing completion. The CNMC will have to determine whether its study has been completed or whether a more detailed analysis is needed, which involves a second phase. Most of the operations analyzed by the CNMC, such as the merger of CaixaBank and Bankia, have been approved at this early stage, provided that certain conditions are planned to ensure competence.
BBVA director general Onur Genç expressed his confidence that the operation will receive the green light at this stage, citing the previous merger as a positive precedent. However, the director of Banco Sabadell, César González-Bueno, signaled that a more comprehensive analysis by the CNMC is important.
Possible scenarios
The CNMC will be able to opt for three paths: finalize its analysis in the initial phase, launch a second phase of study or expand the initial phase before issuing a dictamen.
Meanwhile, BBVA's offer to Sabadell members depends on the approval of the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV), which is key to progressing the acquisition process. I am uncertain whether the CNMV will wait for the CNMC's dictamen before proceeding, so you could return the resolution more at the first quincena of November.
Offer Details
BBVA offered Sabadell fans a pago de 0.29 euros per share, considering the dividends of both entities. If more than 50% of Sabadell's members accept the offer, BBVA could lose control of the Catalan entity.
Implications
The merger, prosperity, transformation of the Spanish banking landscape and the updating of the CNMC will be fundamental to the outcome of the operation. I was careful that even if they present regulatory obstacles, the group will try to nimbly follow its planes to control Sabadell.
The CNMC's decision, which is expected this week, will mark a blow in the merger process and in BBVA's future strategy in the Spanish market.
