Uruguay spent an election year marked by the participation of almost all countries of the world's population in democratic processes. With the victory of Yamandú Orsi in the presidential elections, the country is preparing to face a series of meetings in the international arena. The new government, which will take over on March 1, will face a global landscape marked by the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States, geopolitical tensions and challenges in the region.
Trump's hiring, scheduled for January 20, will occur before Orsi takes back the office of president. This second mandate of the Republican leader promises to maintain a line similar to his previous management, with particular attention to migratory control, tensions with China and his critical position towards the regimes of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. However, a significant change will be the designation of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, a politician with strong ties to Latin America and a strategic vision for the region.
During his time as senator, Rubio showed interest in strengthening the bilateral relationship with Uruguay. In 2022, it has become important to balance trade relations with China and promote greater trade with Europe and the United States. Its numbers could open up new opportunities for cooperation in areas such as security, trade and space technology, although there is also a plantation of challenges for Uruguay, which has maintained a pragmatic relationship with China as its main trading partner .
For Uruguayan exporters, the decisions of the new state administration will be key. According to Carmen Porteiro, president of the Exporters' Union, Trump's trade and monetary policies could influence structural costs and access to international markets. The appreciation of the dollar and the evolution of interest rates are factors that could have an impact on both external trade and the country's public finances.
In this context, Ignacio Bartesaghi, international relations expert, believes that Trump's priorities in Latin America are limited to specific issues such as Mexico and Cuba. As for Uruguay, it is believed that the relationship could benefit from a pragmatic approach, even unless major changes in the regional dynamics are expected. Además, signaled the interest of Trump and Rubio in figures such as Javier Milei, president of Argentina, who could influence the political balance of Mercosur.
Mercosur, precisely, will be one of the great desafíos for the new Uruguayan government. The relationship with Brazil and Argentina, with its main partners, will be marked by tensions between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Milei, two leaders with opuestas visions and a distant relationship. This raises the resistance of European countries, such as France, to ratify the Mercosur-European Union agreement due to environmental and commercial concerns. Emmanuel Macron, President of France, clarified his position by saying that the treatment will not be responded to in its current form, which he added to the presidency of the regional bloc's negotiations.
In the internal plan of Mercosur, Uruguay will have to define its position vis-à-vis Argentina's economic reforms and the effects that could occur in the region. With the legislative elections scheduled in Argentina for 2025, the politics of Milei will be conditioned by the apoyo that logre maintains in Congress, which will generate uncertainty about the economic and political stability in the neighboring country.
At a global level, the scenario is less complex. The new Uruguayan government is part of a context of prolonged conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, which began in 2023, and the Gaza crisis, which was unleashed after the Hamas attack in October 2023. Both conflicts occurred polarized in the international and plant community. desafíos para países pequeños like Uruguay, which seek to maintain a balanced external policy based on respect for international law.
In Nicaragua and Venezuela, the consolidation of authoritarian regimes continues to raise concerns for the region. Nicolás Maduro will begin a new presidential period amid a fraudulent election by much of the international community, while Daniel Ortega advances constitutional reforms that focus even more on him and his spouse, Rosario Murillo. These situations reflect divisions in Latin America and complicate regional integration efforts.
In this context, Uruguay will have to navigate carefully to defend its interests and maintain its reputation as a democratic and stable country. Yamandú Orsi's return to government will balance relations with key players such as the United States, China and its regional neighbors, while dealing with internal and external pressures resulting from an ever-changing global landscape.
The country's external policy will be characterized by the need to diversify markets, strengthen its position in Mercosur and adapt to an increasingly multipolar world. With leadership that promotes continuity in some aspects and change in others, the new Uruguayan government will have the opportunity to consolidate its card as a relevant player in the region and much more. However, success will depend on your ability to manage the complexities of this scenario and take advantage of the opportunities that come your way.
