France is experiencing a moment of unprecedented political tension following the approval of the censure motion launched by the coalition of embarrassment against the government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier. The unexpected alliance between the izquierda and the extrema derecha, led by Marine Le Pen, caused the dismissal of the Executive, leaving the country in a political limbo that was paralyzing its administrative and economic functioning.
Barnier's government, defined by Le Pen as “ephemeral”, was in power three months before being ousted for this parliamentary manipulation. The censure vote also blocked the draft presupuestario for next year, which left France without an approved gas plan and on the verge of a European-style government shutdown. The lack of a prerequisite could prevent the state from making essential payments, from officials' salaries to contracts with suppliers, starting from 1 euro.
A functioning government and a low-presidency president
Once the outcome of the motion of censure passed, Barnier's government ceased to do so immediately, relying solely on the ability to manage ordinary tasks. Now, President Emmanuel Macron must make urgent decisions to avoid an institutional and economic collapse. The options on the table are not simple: appoint a tech government to run the country until the next legislative elections, negotiate with the izquierda to form a new government, or give in to the demands of the far right run by Le Pen.
In statements to public television Franceinfo, the sources ask the president to ensure that Macron will announce a new prime minister in days. This issue seeks to calm political and economic tensions, as well as ensure that the country has a functioning government that can present an assumption and avoid institutional paralysis.
A technological government as a temporary solution?
One of the most plausible alternatives would be the formation of a technical government, composed of technical profiles and without a clear political affiliation, which allows Macron to buy time until new elections are called. However, this option also entails risks, since such an executive will have limited political margin and could face new movements of censure in the National Assembly.
The name of Sébastien Lecornu, current minister of the Fuerzas Armadas, is floating around as a possible candidate for prime minister. François Bayrou, leader of the Democratic Movement (MoDem), and ally of Macron, also said it as a consensus figure capable of managing a technological cabinet. Despite these speculations, the great challenge will be to form a group that will have the sufficient response in a deeply divided Parliament.
According to experts, a technological government could guarantee temporal stability by avoiding parliamentary debates on major issues and will allow Macron to prepare the ground for next year's legislative elections. However, this solution will also bridge a year of political paralysis that could ease social and economic tensions.
Marine Le Pen and the extreme right wing
The approval of the censure motion also strengthened the position of Marine Le Pen, who was able to capitalize on social and political discontent to gain prominence on the national scene. Le Pen harshly criticized Barnier's government, accusing it of “sectarianism” and elaborating assumptions that had defined it as “socialist”. Furthermore, the leader of the Agrupación Nacional (RN) has demanded from more people on issues such as immigration, positioning himself as an alternative company in the face of current instability.
Without embargo, Le Pen frenta sus propios desafíos. There is a possibility that she will be found guilty of embezzlement of funds in a case whose sentence will be known in March. This scenario could complicate the political future, although some analysts have signaled that they may try to participate in the presidential elections to prevent a criminal from affecting their career.
A Parliament divided and critical cruzadas
The current situation reflects France's political fragmentation. The izquierda, led by the Nuevo Frente Popular, criticized Macron for not allowing them to form the government, despite being the first parliamentary force. “He betrayed the republican front,” said Boris Vallaud, socialist spokesman, alluding to the supposed alliance between Macron and his ultimate right to maintain power.
For her part, Le Pen accused the government of lacking direction and ignoring key issues such as immigration. Therefore, Macron's aliases have signaled that the motion of censure represents an “anti-natural alliance” between disquiet and extreme right, whose sole objective was to derogate the Executive without presenting a viable alternative.
The economic impact of the crisis
Political paralysis does not only affect institutional stability, as it also has serious economic implications. The failure of a prerequisite approved before the end of the year could have placed France in an unprecedented situation, so that the State could not make essential payments or meet its financial compromises.
Bloomberg analysts warn that a year of political embargo could destabilize markets and increase the fiscal deficit, especially if the government is forced to make concessions to obtain parliamentary help. In a context of high inflation and social tensions, the lack of medical care could aggravate economic uncertainty and generate a negative impact on the international perception of France.
An uncertain future
The current crisis marks a turning point in the presidency of Emmanuel Macron, who faces one of the most critical moments of his mandate. With a divided Parliament, a country on the verge of paralysis and a strong opposition, the president will have to make quick and strategic decisions to avoid institutional collapse.
The number of a new prime minister will be key to determining France's political role in the coming months. However, forming a stable government in such a polarized environment will be a monumental challenge. While the country continues to live, in the hope of a solution that will allow us to overcome this phase of uncertainty and conflict.
