LIBRE party in Honduras: can the opposition halt its advance?

In Honduras’s political landscape, the upcoming general elections in November 2025 are emerging as a critical point for the nation’s democratic future. Several commentators, opposition figures, and elements from civil society have highlighted that the absence of cohesion among opposition groups might enable the Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party to strengthen its leading status in governance. This scenario prompts fears that the nation might embrace a governance system akin to that found in other Latin American countries where power concentration has reduced institutional counterbalances.

The electoral landscape is characterized by significant tensions. The ongoing state of emergency, the oversight of critical entities like the National Electoral Council (CNE), and the enactment of laws under non-transparent conditions have heightened concerns about potential institutional deterioration. Further complicating the situation are recent opposition demonstrations and international cautions stressing the need to uphold the democratic process’s integrity. Thus, the nation finds itself at a pivotal juncture, where the opposition’s capacity to formulate a unified strategy will be crucial for influencing the power dynamics.

The challenge of a divided opposition and LIBRE’s unification

The division among the opposition in Honduras is a major hurdle for those aiming to stop the consolidation of authority by LIBRE. In the National Congress, the power dynamics have altered with the exit of notable individuals like Jorge Cálix, complicating the process of forming majorities and emphasizing the tenuous nature of legislative agreements. At present, the National Party holds 43 seats, LIBRE controls 41, the Liberal Party occupies 35, and the remaining seats are held by smaller and unaffiliated parties, necessitating ongoing dialogue to advance significant proposals.

LIBRE, on its side, has aimed to solidify its hold on institutions by trying to lead the CNE throughout the election process and keeping its sway in the Supreme Court of Justice. This pursuit of dominance has been met with opposition from rival parties, who perceive it as a threat to the election’s fairness and integrity. Moreover, the ongoing role of Defense Minister Rixi Moncada as a presidential candidate without stepping down has sparked ethical concerns and is seen as an indicator of the governing party’s ambition to retain power.

The bet on a mega alliance and the democratic future

In this context, multiple perspectives suggest that the sole feasible option to stop LIBRE’s progress is to create a large opposition coalition. This alliance would involve individuals like Salvador Nasralla, factions from the National Party, moderate liberals, new movements, and independent figures. The objective is to reestablish constitutional governance, curb populist movements, rejuvenate the economy, and bring the nation together with a unified national agenda.

Nonetheless, forming this coalition encounters hurdles arising from skepticism, specific agendas, and a backdrop of internal splits. A failure to collaborate might turn out to be a critical error, aiding the establishment of a one-party dominance and undermining democratic oversight. With the elections set for November 30, 2025, there is little time left to put together an impactful response, and various segments of Honduran society recognize the genuine threat of institutional backsliding.