The US government has implemented more restrictive controls on the export of high-level memory chips (HBM), used in artificial intelligence (AI) applications, to China. These new regulations affect both products manufactured in EE. UU. like those that were produced abroad, marking a significant step in the country's strategy to limit China's access to advanced technologies.
The recent meditation, announced on December 2, is summarized in the restrictions previously imposed by the Biden administration over the past three years. The underlying goal of this policy is to prevent China from gaining access to critical technologies that could provide a military and technological development advantage. In response, China initiated its own restrictions on the export of germanium, galium and other materials essential for the manufacture of semiconductors and high-tech equipment.
Experts warn that these restrictions will reduce the dumping of AI chips in China and, in the worst case, limit access to HBM. Currently, HBM's production capacity in China does not reach South Korean companies such as SK Hynix and Samsung, nor the US-based Micron. However, China is working to strengthen its capacity in this sector.
Jeffery Chiu, CEO of Ansforce, a specialized technology consultant, explained that if EE restrictions occur. UU. It will deprive China of high-quality HBM in the short yard, in a large yard, the country could develop its own production, albeit with less advanced technology. Leading Chinese companies in this space, such as Yangtze Memory Technologies and Changxin Memory Technologies, are expanding their capacity to produce HBM, aiming to achieve technological self-sufficiency.
The importance of HBM chips is fundamental due to their superior storage capacity and speed compared to conventional memory. This technology is critical to the operation of AI applications that require complex calculations and processing of large volumes of data. HBM chips optimize the performance of AI applications by enabling fast and efficient information processing.
The analogy of a highway can illustrate this benefit: a highway with more trolleys allows for smoother traffic flow and reduces the possibility of congestion. Likewise, HBM chips, having an even in-band mayor, allow AI applications to run without significant results.
Currently the HBM market is dominated by three main companies: SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron. According to a release from TrendForce, as of 2022, Hynix controlled 50% of the market, followed by Samsung with 40% and Micron with 10%. Let's hope this trend continues, with Hynix and Samsung maintaining a combined 95% market share over the next few years. Micron, for its part, seeks to increase HBM's share to 25% by 2025.
The high value of HBM chips has allowed manufacturers to devote significant resources to their production. It is estimated that starting in 2024, HBM will account for more than 20% of the total standard memory chip market, with the potential to exceed 30% in subsequent years.
The manufacturing of the HBM is a complex process that involves the accumulation of numerous memory chips on thin caps, similar to a hamburger. This tool requires extreme precision, as each garment must be extremely delicate, which complicates production and increases the cost. HBM's selling price is sometimes higher than that of conventional memory chips.
To achieve this, each HBM chip must be cleaned to a size that is equivalent to medium size. Additionally, drilling needles into the chips to allow the connection of electrical wires, precision in the location and size of these needles is critical to the operation of the device.
HBM's manufacturing process has many points of possible failure, which has turned it into a challenge in the technology industry. G Dan Hutcheson, vice president of TechInsights, reported that the manufacturing of these devices is comparable to building a snow castle, where any mistake can result in the collapse of the project.
In summary, the new EE restrictions. UU. on exporting HBM chips to China is a reflection of geopolitical tensions and technological expertise among other nations. While advanced technological development in China may be temporarily curbed, the country is determined to increase its self-sufficiency in semiconductor production, which could have significant implications for the global industry of the future.
