.jpg?w=800&resize=800,500&ssl=1 "Rixi Moncada")
Recent opinion surveys reveal an unforeseen shift in the race for the presidency in Honduras. The candidate from the governing party, Rixi Moncada, has experienced a continuous drop in poll standings, creating new obstacles for the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) as it strives to retain control in the elections slated for November 30.
Ongoing drop in voting preferences
Data released by pollsters such as Paradigma, Pro-Encuestas, and national media outlets such as HCH reflect a notable decline in support for the ruling party candidate. According to the Paradigma study, conducted between May 4 and 17, Moncada obtained only 11.3% of the vote, trailing Salvador Nasralla of the Liberal Party (25.6%) and Nasry Asfura of the National Party (21.2%). In the same poll, 13.9% of those surveyed said they were undecided.
In the meantime, the report by Pro-Encuestas conducted from June 5 to 7 indicates a small increase for Moncada, reaching 28.5%, yet still trailing behind Asfura at 36.3% and Nasralla at 34.2%. Additionally, HCH announced on June 12 that Moncada’s voter preference was approximately 16%, while Asfura recorded 45%, and Nasralla was estimated to be between 25% and 35%.
This drop differs from the March data, when the TResearch survey showed Moncada with roughly 44.9% voter support. The variation signifies a notable fall in under three months, amidst a political atmosphere characterized by intense rivalry and increasing voter fragmentation.
Redrawing of the political landscape
The shift in voting tendencies indicates not just a decline in the ruling party candidate’s support, but also a rise in strength among the opposition figures. Nasralla and Asfura consistently rank higher than Moncada in all the latest surveys, suggesting a reshaping of the political scene before November.
In this situation, the quantity of indecisive voters remains a crucial element. While a few recent surveys do not include this group, data from May reveals that nearly one out of every seven voters is still uncertain about their position. This instability in public sentiment allows for shifts in the present trend, contingent on the success of the campaigns during the final phase.
Responses and approaches of the governing party
In light of these findings, the LIBRE party has started reevaluating its stance. Party representatives blame the drop in polls on what they describe as “misinformation efforts” by opposing groups. Nonetheless, the leadership acknowledges the necessity for immediate strategic revisions, such as transformations in the political messaging, the campaign team, and the methods of engaging with voters.
Half a year before the elections, the primary obstacle for the governing party is not just to recover lost ground against competitors, but also to construct a stronger support system amidst increasing competition. Opportunities for movement are decreasing as the election timetable progresses, and the upcoming weeks will be crucial in deciding if Moncada’s campaign can reestablish itself or if the ongoing trend will solidify.
A situation full of underlying conflicts
The Honduran electoral landscape is heading toward a closer contest than expected at the beginning of the year. The loss of support for the ruling party’s candidate, the rise of opposition forces, and the weight of undecided voters raise questions about the political system’s ability to channel the growing electoral momentum.
The progression of the campaigns, the response from institutions to potential conflicts, and the involvement of citizens will play a crucial role in a process that is emerging as a significant test for the nation’s democratic stability.