Voting intentions in Honduras: Nasralla extends his lead

Various public opinion polls place Salvador Nasralla at the forefront of voting intentions for the 2025 general elections, in a scenario marked by disputes between the country’s main political forces.

Five months before the general elections in Honduras, recent poll results show a competitive scenario, with Salvador Nasralla, the current Liberal Party candidate, leading the polls in two of the main studies published in May. These data reflect a stage of key political decisions, where possible opposition alliances and the consolidation of candidacies could have a decisive impact on the course of the electoral process.

Surveys rank Nasralla at the top

A study conducted by the US firm Expedition Strategies in May 2025 places Salvador Nasralla with 25.2% of the vote, followed by Nasry Asfura of the National Party with 21.4% and Rixi Moncada of the ruling LIBRE party with 16%. In addition, the poll highlights that Nasralla is the most frequently mentioned option to lead a possible opposition alliance, with 37% support in that scenario.

A second poll, conducted by the Paradigma polling firm between May 4 and 17, presents similar results. In this poll, Nasralla reaches 25.6%, followed again by Asfura with 21.2% and Moncada with 11.3%. The coincidence between the two polls reinforces the perception that Nasralla’s leadership remains stable at this point in the electoral calendar.

Differences in research findings and debates regarding data utilization

Even though similarities exist between these two analyses, there isn’t unanimous agreement on the published results. A survey conducted by TResearch International, made public in March 2025, presents a distinct arrangement: Rixi Moncada was in first place with 44.9%, Nasralla held 27.5%, and Asfura had 23.4%. The variations in outcomes are linked to the study’s timing and the methodology applied, though no additional information has been provided.

Amid the disparities, a dispute emerged regarding the spread of a purported survey linked to TResearch that ranked Nasralla in the lead. The company openly refuted the validity of the document, confirming that it was not related to any research carried out by them and repudiating the unapproved utilization of their name and logo. This incident has reignited discussions about the distortion of surveys and their influence on public opinion, particularly in a highly polarized political environment.

General overview and anticipated outcomes for party definitions

Elections are set for November 2025, and the political scene in Honduras is evolving with active competition among three principal groups: the current government led by LIBRE, the National Party, and the Liberal Party. Nasralla, previously a contender for the presidency and now representing a segment of the Liberal Party, is appearing again as a key figure in the pre-election landscape.

The chance of forming an opposition coalition continues to be debated, especially among groups aiming to stand together against the ongoing rule of the current party. The backing Nasralla is gaining as a prospective leader of such an alliance indicates that his influence might extend beyond his solo candidacy, contingent upon the decisions made by the party in the upcoming months.

A voting procedure characterized by institutional doubt

The spread of conflicting polls and the improper use of statistical data highlight the challenges faced by the Honduran electoral process in maintaining transparency and credibility. Additionally, there are strains among the primary political figures and the public’s anticipation of an election that currently seems to lack a definitive majority.

The evolution of the candidates, the formation of alliances, and the positioning of traditional forces vis-à-vis new coalitions will define the political climate in the second half of the year. In this context, the role of electoral institutions and civil society in observing and guaranteeing a legitimate process will be crucial to preserving democratic stability in the country.